Cavanal Hillultra Short Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.38
| AIUSX Fund | USD 10.04 0.00 0.00% |
Cavanal |
Cavanal Hillultra Target Price Odds to finish below 9.38
The tendency of Cavanal Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.38 or more in 90 days |
| 10.04 | 90 days | 9.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cavanal Hillultra to drop to $ 9.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cavanal Hillultra Short probability density function shows the probability of Cavanal Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cavanal Hillultra Short price to stay between $ 9.38 and its current price of $10.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.4 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Cavanal Hillultra Short has a beta of -0.0099. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cavanal Hillultra are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cavanal Hillultra Short is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cavanal Hillultra Short has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cavanal Hillultra Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cavanal Hillultra
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cavanal Hillultra Short. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavanal Hillultra's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavanal Hillultra Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cavanal Hillultra is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cavanal Hillultra's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cavanal Hillultra Short, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cavanal Hillultra within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0015 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0099 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.95 |
Cavanal Hillultra Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cavanal Hillultra for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cavanal Hillultra Short can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds about 13.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Cavanal Hillultra Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cavanal Mutual Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cavanal Hillultra's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cavanal Hillultra's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Cavanal Hillultra Technical Analysis
Cavanal Hillultra's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cavanal Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cavanal Hillultra Short. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cavanal Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cavanal Hillultra Predictive Forecast Models
Cavanal Hillultra's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cavanal Hillultra's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cavanal Hillultra's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cavanal Hillultra Short
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cavanal Hillultra for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cavanal Hillultra Short help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund holds about 13.79% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Cavanal Mutual Fund
Cavanal Hillultra financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cavanal Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cavanal with respect to the benefits of owning Cavanal Hillultra security.
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