Agnc Investment Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.53
| AGNCL Stock | USD 25.13 0.09 0.36% |
AGNC |
AGNC Investment Target Price Odds to finish below 18.53
The tendency of AGNC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 18.53 or more in 90 days |
| 25.13 | 90 days | 18.53 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AGNC Investment to drop to $ 18.53 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AGNC Investment Corp probability density function shows the probability of AGNC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AGNC Investment Corp price to stay between $ 18.53 and its current price of $25.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon AGNC Investment has a beta of 0.17. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AGNC Investment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AGNC Investment Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AGNC Investment Corp has an alpha of 0.0545, implying that it can generate a 0.0545 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AGNC Investment Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AGNC Investment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGNC Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGNC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AGNC Investment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AGNC Investment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AGNC Investment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AGNC Investment Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AGNC Investment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
AGNC Investment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AGNC Investment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AGNC Investment Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AGNC Investment Corp has accumulated 80 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.76, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGNC Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.23, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Note, when we think about AGNC Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| AGNC Investment Corp has accumulated about 9.4 B in cash with (118 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.45. | |
| AGNC Investment Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: AGNC Investment Corp. 7.75 percent DP PFD G declares 0.4844 dividend |
AGNC Investment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AGNC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AGNC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGNC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 619.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 518 M |
AGNC Investment Technical Analysis
AGNC Investment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGNC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AGNC Investment Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGNC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AGNC Investment Predictive Forecast Models
AGNC Investment's time-series forecasting models is one of many AGNC Investment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AGNC Investment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AGNC Investment Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about AGNC Investment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AGNC Investment Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AGNC Investment Corp has accumulated 80 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.76, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGNC Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.23, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Note, when we think about AGNC Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| AGNC Investment Corp has accumulated about 9.4 B in cash with (118 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.45. | |
| AGNC Investment Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: AGNC Investment Corp. 7.75 percent DP PFD G declares 0.4844 dividend |
Check out AGNC Investment Backtesting, AGNC Investment Valuation, AGNC Investment Correlation, AGNC Investment Hype Analysis, AGNC Investment Volatility, AGNC Investment History as well as AGNC Investment Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGNC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.40) | Dividend Share 1.44 | Revenue Per Share 1.723 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) | Return On Assets 0.0145 |
The market value of AGNC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGNC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGNC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGNC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGNC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGNC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGNC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AGNC Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGNC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.