Federal Agricultural Mortgage Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 209.40
| AGM Stock | USD 209.02 2.36 1.12% |
Federal |
Federal Agricultural Target Price Odds to finish below 209.40
The tendency of Federal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 209.40 after 90 days |
| 209.02 | 90 days | 209.40 | about 86.75 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Federal Agricultural to stay under $ 209.40 after 90 days from now is about 86.75 (This Federal Agricultural Mortgage probability density function shows the probability of Federal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Federal Agricultural price to stay between its current price of $ 209.02 and $ 209.40 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.06 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Federal Agricultural will likely underperform. Additionally Federal Agricultural Mortgage has an alpha of 0.0346, implying that it can generate a 0.0346 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Federal Agricultural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Federal Agricultural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Agricultural. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federal Agricultural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Federal Agricultural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Federal Agricultural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Federal Agricultural Mortgage, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Federal Agricultural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Federal Agricultural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Federal Agricultural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Federal Agricultural can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Federal Agricultural has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Canaan Inc. Signs Agreement with AGM Group Holdings Inc. |
Federal Agricultural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Federal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Federal Agricultural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Agricultural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 B |
Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis
Federal Agricultural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Federal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage. In general, you should focus on analyzing Federal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Federal Agricultural Predictive Forecast Models
Federal Agricultural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Federal Agricultural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Federal Agricultural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Federal Agricultural
Checking the ongoing alerts about Federal Agricultural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federal Agricultural help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Federal Agricultural has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from prnewswire.com: Canaan Inc. Signs Agreement with AGM Group Holdings Inc. |
Check out Federal Agricultural Backtesting, Federal Agricultural Valuation, Federal Agricultural Correlation, Federal Agricultural Hype Analysis, Federal Agricultural Volatility, Federal Agricultural History as well as Federal Agricultural Performance. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Agricultural. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federal Agricultural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.18) | Dividend Share 5.3 | Earnings Share 15.56 | Revenue Per Share 32.007 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.11) |
The market value of Federal Agricultural is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federal Agricultural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federal Agricultural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federal Agricultural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federal Agricultural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Agricultural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federal Agricultural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Agricultural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.