Agios Pharm Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.98
| AGIO Stock | USD 35.54 1.20 3.49% |
Closest to current price Agios long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Agios |
Agios Pharm Target Price Odds to finish over 25.98
The tendency of Agios Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 25.98 in 90 days |
| 35.54 | 90 days | 25.98 | about 92.05 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agios Pharm to stay above $ 25.98 in 90 days from now is about 92.05 (This Agios Pharm probability density function shows the probability of Agios Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agios Pharm price to stay between $ 25.98 and its current price of $35.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.19 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Agios Pharm has a beta of 0.59. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Agios Pharm average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Agios Pharm will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Agios Pharm has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Agios Pharm Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agios Pharm
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agios Pharm. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agios Pharm Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agios Pharm is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agios Pharm's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agios Pharm, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agios Pharm within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.58 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Agios Pharm Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agios Pharm for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agios Pharm can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agios Pharm generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agios Pharm has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Agios Pharm currently holds about 819.31 M in cash with (389.84 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.95. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: What Is Driving Recent Moves in Agios Pharmaceuticals |
Agios Pharm Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agios Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agios Pharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agios Pharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 893.7 M |
Agios Pharm Technical Analysis
Agios Pharm's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agios Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agios Pharm. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agios Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agios Pharm Predictive Forecast Models
Agios Pharm's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agios Pharm's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agios Pharm's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agios Pharm
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agios Pharm for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agios Pharm help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agios Pharm generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agios Pharm has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Agios Pharm currently holds about 819.31 M in cash with (389.84 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.95. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from kalkinemedia.com: What Is Driving Recent Moves in Agios Pharmaceuticals |
Check out Agios Pharm Backtesting, Agios Pharm Valuation, Agios Pharm Correlation, Agios Pharm Hype Analysis, Agios Pharm Volatility, Agios Pharm History as well as Agios Pharm Performance. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agios Pharm. If investors know Agios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agios Pharm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 11.64 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.511 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Agios Pharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agios that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agios Pharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agios Pharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agios Pharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agios Pharm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agios Pharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agios Pharm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agios Pharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.