Agha Steel (Pakistan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 14.87
| AGHA Stock | 10.93 0.04 0.36% |
Agha |
Agha Steel Target Price Odds to finish below 14.87
The tendency of Agha Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 14.87 after 90 days |
| 10.93 | 90 days | 14.87 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agha Steel to stay under 14.87 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Agha Steel Industries probability density function shows the probability of Agha Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Agha Steel Industries price to stay between its current price of 10.93 and 14.87 at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Agha Steel Industries has a beta of -0.48. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Agha Steel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Agha Steel Industries is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Agha Steel Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Agha Steel Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Agha Steel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agha Steel Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agha Steel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agha Steel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agha Steel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Agha Steel Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agha Steel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Agha Steel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agha Steel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Agha Steel Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Agha Steel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agha Steel has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Agha Steel Technical Analysis
Agha Steel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agha Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Agha Steel Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agha Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agha Steel Predictive Forecast Models
Agha Steel's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agha Steel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agha Steel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Agha Steel Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agha Steel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Agha Steel Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Agha Steel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Agha Steel has high historical volatility and very poor performance |