Focused International Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 12.47
| AFCSX Fund | USD 16.74 0.13 0.78% |
Focused |
Focused International Target Price Odds to finish below 12.47
The tendency of Focused Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 12.47 or more in 90 days |
| 16.74 | 90 days | 12.47 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Focused International to drop to $ 12.47 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Focused International Growth probability density function shows the probability of Focused Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Focused International price to stay between $ 12.47 and its current price of $16.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.73 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Focused International has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Focused International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Focused International Growth will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Focused International Growth has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Focused International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Focused International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Focused International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Focused International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Focused International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Focused International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Focused International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Focused International Growth, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Focused International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Focused International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Focused International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Focused International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Focused International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -4.0% | |
| Focused International holds 95.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Focused International Technical Analysis
Focused International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Focused Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Focused International Growth. In general, you should focus on analyzing Focused Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Focused International Predictive Forecast Models
Focused International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Focused International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Focused International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Focused International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Focused International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Focused International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Focused International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -4.0% | |
| Focused International holds 95.44% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Other Information on Investing in Focused Mutual Fund
Focused International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Focused Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Focused with respect to the benefits of owning Focused International security.
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