American Equity Investment Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.85
| AELDelisted Stock | USD 53.75 0.10 0.19% |
American |
American Equity Target Price Odds to finish below 53.85
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 53.85 after 90 days |
| 53.75 | 90 days | 53.85 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Equity to stay under $ 53.85 after 90 days from now is under 95 (This American Equity Investment probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Equity Inve price to stay between its current price of $ 53.75 and $ 53.85 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Equity has a beta of 0.83. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Equity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Equity Investment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Equity Investment has an alpha of 0.5198, implying that it can generate a 0.52 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Equity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Equity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Equity Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Equity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Equity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Equity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Equity Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Equity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.52 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.83 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.19 |
American Equity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Equity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Equity Inve can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| American Equity Inve is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| American Equity Inve has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| American Equity Investment has 864.55 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.27, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. American Equity Inve has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 95.0% of American Equity shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
American Equity Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Equity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Equity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.6 B |
American Equity Technical Analysis
American Equity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Equity Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Equity Predictive Forecast Models
American Equity's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Equity's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Equity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Equity Inve
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Equity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Equity Inve help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| American Equity Inve is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| American Equity Inve has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| American Equity Investment has 864.55 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.27, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. American Equity Inve has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 95.0% of American Equity shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Other Consideration for investing in American Stock
If you are still planning to invest in American Equity Inve check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the American Equity's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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