Adverum Biotechnologies Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.85
| ADVM Stock | USD 5.10 0.50 8.93% |
Closest to current price Adverum long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Adverum |
Adverum Biotechnologies Target Price Odds to finish over 6.85
The tendency of Adverum Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 6.85 or more in 90 days |
| 5.10 | 90 days | 6.85 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Adverum Biotechnologies to move over $ 6.85 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Adverum Biotechnologies probability density function shows the probability of Adverum Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Adverum Biotechnologies price to stay between its current price of $ 5.10 and $ 6.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Adverum Biotechnologies has a beta of 0.45. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Adverum Biotechnologies average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Adverum Biotechnologies will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Adverum Biotechnologies has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Adverum Biotechnologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Adverum Biotechnologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adverum Biotechnologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adverum Biotechnologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Adverum Biotechnologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Adverum Biotechnologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Adverum Biotechnologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Adverum Biotechnologies, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Adverum Biotechnologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0055 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Adverum Biotechnologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Adverum Biotechnologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Adverum Biotechnologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Adverum Biotechnologies had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.17 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (67.22 M). | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies currently holds about 235.84 M in cash with (90.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.37. | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Adverum Biotechnologies Inc expected to post a loss of 1.36 a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView |
Adverum Biotechnologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Adverum Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Adverum Biotechnologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adverum Biotechnologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.5 M |
Adverum Biotechnologies Technical Analysis
Adverum Biotechnologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Adverum Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Adverum Biotechnologies. In general, you should focus on analyzing Adverum Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Adverum Biotechnologies Predictive Forecast Models
Adverum Biotechnologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Adverum Biotechnologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Adverum Biotechnologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Adverum Biotechnologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Adverum Biotechnologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Adverum Biotechnologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Adverum Biotechnologies had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.6 M. Net Loss for the year was (117.17 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (67.22 M). | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies currently holds about 235.84 M in cash with (90.9 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.37. | |
| Adverum Biotechnologies has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 75.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Adverum Biotechnologies Inc expected to post a loss of 1.36 a share - Earnings Preview - TradingView |
Check out Adverum Biotechnologies Backtesting, Adverum Biotechnologies Valuation, Adverum Biotechnologies Correlation, Adverum Biotechnologies Hype Analysis, Adverum Biotechnologies Volatility, Adverum Biotechnologies History as well as Adverum Biotechnologies Performance. To learn how to invest in Adverum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Adverum Biotechnologies guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adverum Biotechnologies. If investors know Adverum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adverum Biotechnologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.95) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.70) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Adverum Biotechnologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adverum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adverum Biotechnologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adverum Biotechnologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adverum Biotechnologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adverum Biotechnologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adverum Biotechnologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adverum Biotechnologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adverum Biotechnologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.