Aclaris Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.31
| ACRS Stock | USD 2.48 0.25 9.16% |
Aclaris |
Aclaris Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 1.31
The tendency of Aclaris Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 1.31 in 90 days |
| 2.48 | 90 days | 1.31 | about 85.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aclaris Therapeutics to stay above $ 1.31 in 90 days from now is about 85.67 (This Aclaris Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Aclaris Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aclaris Therapeutics price to stay between $ 1.31 and its current price of $2.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.78 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aclaris Therapeutics has a beta of 0.25. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aclaris Therapeutics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aclaris Therapeutics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Aclaris Therapeutics has an alpha of 1.6175, implying that it can generate a 1.62 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aclaris Therapeutics Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Aclaris Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aclaris Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aclaris Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aclaris Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aclaris Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aclaris Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aclaris Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.62 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Aclaris Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aclaris Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aclaris Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aclaris Therapeutics is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aclaris Therapeutics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 31.25 M. Net Loss for the year was (88.48 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (60.02 M). | |
| Aclaris Therapeutics currently holds about 248.6 M in cash with (78.33 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.73, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Aclaris Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Aclaris Stock Rises As Analyst Projects Billions In Sales For New Therapy |
Aclaris Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aclaris Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aclaris Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aclaris Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 119.1 M |
Aclaris Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Aclaris Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aclaris Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aclaris Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aclaris Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.