Acadia Healthcare Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.02
| ACHC Stock | USD 38.59 0.46 1.18% |
Acadia |
Acadia Healthcare Target Price Odds to finish below 28.02
The tendency of Acadia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 28.02 or more in 90 days |
| 38.59 | 90 days | 28.02 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acadia Healthcare to drop to $ 28.02 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Acadia Healthcare probability density function shows the probability of Acadia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Acadia Healthcare price to stay between $ 28.02 and its current price of $38.59 at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Acadia Healthcare has a beta of 0.69. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Acadia Healthcare average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Acadia Healthcare will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Acadia Healthcare has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Acadia Healthcare Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Acadia Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acadia Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Acadia Healthcare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acadia Healthcare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acadia Healthcare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acadia Healthcare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acadia Healthcare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.69 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.95 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.27 |
Acadia Healthcare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acadia Healthcare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acadia Healthcare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Acadia Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acadia Healthcare has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (21.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.12 B. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Disposition of 2025 shares by Khan Nasser of Acadia Healthcare at 72.51 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Acadia Healthcare Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Acadia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Acadia Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acadia Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 100.1 M |
Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis
Acadia Healthcare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acadia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acadia Healthcare. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acadia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Acadia Healthcare Predictive Forecast Models
Acadia Healthcare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Acadia Healthcare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Acadia Healthcare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Acadia Healthcare
Checking the ongoing alerts about Acadia Healthcare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acadia Healthcare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Acadia Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acadia Healthcare has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.93 B. Net Loss for the year was (21.67 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.12 B. | |
| Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Disposition of 2025 shares by Khan Nasser of Acadia Healthcare at 72.51 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Acadia Healthcare Backtesting, Acadia Healthcare Valuation, Acadia Healthcare Correlation, Acadia Healthcare Hype Analysis, Acadia Healthcare Volatility, Acadia Healthcare History as well as Acadia Healthcare Performance. For information on how to trade Acadia Stock refer to our How to Trade Acadia Stock guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acadia Healthcare. If investors know Acadia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acadia Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.076 | Earnings Share 3.05 | Revenue Per Share 34.13 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.087 | Return On Assets 0.0606 |
The market value of Acadia Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acadia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acadia Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acadia Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acadia Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acadia Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acadia Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Acadia Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acadia Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.