Accel Entertainment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.71
| ACEL Stock | USD 9.82 0.21 2.19% |
Closest to current price Accel long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Accel |
Accel Entertainment Target Price Odds to finish over 10.71
The tendency of Accel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.71 or more in 90 days |
| 9.82 | 90 days | 10.71 | about 72.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Accel Entertainment to move over $ 10.71 or more in 90 days from now is about 72.48 (This Accel Entertainment probability density function shows the probability of Accel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Accel Entertainment price to stay between its current price of $ 9.82 and $ 10.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 24.18 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Accel Entertainment has a beta of 0.7. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Accel Entertainment average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Accel Entertainment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Accel Entertainment has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Accel Entertainment Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Accel Entertainment
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Accel Entertainment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Accel Entertainment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Accel Entertainment Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Accel Entertainment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Accel Entertainment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Accel Entertainment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Accel Entertainment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.72 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Accel Entertainment Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Accel Entertainment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Accel Entertainment can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Accel Entertainment generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 3 Stocks Under 50 Skating on Thin Ice |
Accel Entertainment Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Accel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Accel Entertainment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Accel Entertainment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 85 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 281.3 M |
Accel Entertainment Technical Analysis
Accel Entertainment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Accel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Accel Entertainment. In general, you should focus on analyzing Accel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Accel Entertainment Predictive Forecast Models
Accel Entertainment's time-series forecasting models is one of many Accel Entertainment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Accel Entertainment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Accel Entertainment
Checking the ongoing alerts about Accel Entertainment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Accel Entertainment help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Accel Entertainment generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: 3 Stocks Under 50 Skating on Thin Ice |
Check out Accel Entertainment Backtesting, Accel Entertainment Valuation, Accel Entertainment Correlation, Accel Entertainment Hype Analysis, Accel Entertainment Volatility, Accel Entertainment History as well as Accel Entertainment Performance. For more information on how to buy Accel Stock please use our How to buy in Accel Stock guide.You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Accel Entertainment. If investors know Accel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Accel Entertainment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share 0.41 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.069 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Accel Entertainment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Accel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Accel Entertainment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Accel Entertainment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Accel Entertainment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Accel Entertainment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Accel Entertainment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Accel Entertainment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Accel Entertainment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.