Arbor Realty Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.90
| ABR Stock | USD 13.76 0.05 0.36% |
Arbor |
Arbor Realty Target Price Odds to finish below 10.90
The tendency of Arbor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 10.90 or more in 90 days |
| 13.76 | 90 days | 10.90 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arbor Realty to drop to $ 10.90 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Arbor Realty Trust probability density function shows the probability of Arbor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arbor Realty Trust price to stay between $ 10.90 and its current price of $13.76 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Arbor Realty has a beta of 0.72. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arbor Realty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arbor Realty Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arbor Realty Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arbor Realty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arbor Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbor Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arbor Realty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arbor Realty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arbor Realty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arbor Realty Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arbor Realty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.72 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Arbor Realty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arbor Realty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arbor Realty Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arbor Realty Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.43 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Crossroads Capital Closed its Short Position in Arbor Realty Trust |
Arbor Realty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arbor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arbor Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arbor Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 218.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 935.5 M |
Arbor Realty Technical Analysis
Arbor Realty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arbor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arbor Realty Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arbor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arbor Realty Predictive Forecast Models
Arbor Realty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arbor Realty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arbor Realty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arbor Realty Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arbor Realty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arbor Realty Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arbor Realty Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 27th of November 2024 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.43 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Crossroads Capital Closed its Short Position in Arbor Realty Trust |
Additional Tools for Arbor Stock Analysis
When running Arbor Realty's price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.