Arbor Realty Trust Preferred Stock Probability of Future Preferred Stock Price Finishing Under 17.54
| ABR-PF Preferred Stock | 20.64 0.61 2.87% |
Arbor |
Arbor Realty Target Price Odds to finish below 17.54
The tendency of Arbor Preferred Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 17.54 or more in 90 days |
| 20.64 | 90 days | 17.54 | about 1.22 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arbor Realty to drop to 17.54 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.22 (This Arbor Realty Trust probability density function shows the probability of Arbor Preferred Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arbor Realty Trust price to stay between 17.54 and its current price of 20.64 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Arbor Realty has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Arbor Realty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Arbor Realty Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Arbor Realty Trust has an alpha of 0.2179, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Arbor Realty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arbor Realty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbor Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arbor Realty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arbor Realty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arbor Realty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arbor Realty Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arbor Realty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Arbor Realty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arbor Preferred Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arbor Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arbor Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 199.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 14.8 B |
Arbor Realty Technical Analysis
Arbor Realty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arbor Preferred Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arbor Realty Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arbor Preferred Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arbor Realty Predictive Forecast Models
Arbor Realty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Arbor Realty's preferred stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arbor Realty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the preferred stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Arbor Realty in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Arbor Realty's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Arbor Realty options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Arbor Preferred Stock
Arbor Realty financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arbor Preferred Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arbor with respect to the benefits of owning Arbor Realty security.