AmerisourceBergen Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 157.74
| ABCDelisted Stock | USD 191.45 1.55 0.80% |
AmerisourceBergen |
AmerisourceBergen Target Price Odds to finish below 157.74
The tendency of AmerisourceBergen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 157.74 or more in 90 days |
| 191.45 | 90 days | 157.74 | roughly 2.1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmerisourceBergen to drop to $ 157.74 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.1 (This AmerisourceBergen probability density function shows the probability of AmerisourceBergen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AmerisourceBergen price to stay between $ 157.74 and its current price of $191.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.96 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AmerisourceBergen has a beta of 0.0415. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AmerisourceBergen average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AmerisourceBergen will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AmerisourceBergen has an alpha of 0.2226, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AmerisourceBergen Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for AmerisourceBergen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmerisourceBergen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AmerisourceBergen Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmerisourceBergen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmerisourceBergen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmerisourceBergen, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmerisourceBergen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
AmerisourceBergen Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmerisourceBergen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmerisourceBergen can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AmerisourceBergen is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| AmerisourceBergen has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| AmerisourceBergen has 5.7 B in debt. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.89, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
AmerisourceBergen Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AmerisourceBergen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AmerisourceBergen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmerisourceBergen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 211.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
AmerisourceBergen Technical Analysis
AmerisourceBergen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AmerisourceBergen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AmerisourceBergen. In general, you should focus on analyzing AmerisourceBergen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AmerisourceBergen Predictive Forecast Models
AmerisourceBergen's time-series forecasting models is one of many AmerisourceBergen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AmerisourceBergen's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AmerisourceBergen
Checking the ongoing alerts about AmerisourceBergen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AmerisourceBergen help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AmerisourceBergen is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| AmerisourceBergen has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| AmerisourceBergen has 5.7 B in debt. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.89, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of labor statistics. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Other Consideration for investing in AmerisourceBergen Stock
If you are still planning to invest in AmerisourceBergen check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the AmerisourceBergen's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Price Exposure Probability Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk |