Astra Agro (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6650.0
| AALI Stock | IDR 6,275 50.00 0.80% |
Astra |
Astra Agro Target Price Odds to finish below 6650.0
The tendency of Astra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 6,650 after 90 days |
| 6,275 | 90 days | 6,650 | about 72.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astra Agro to stay under 6,650 after 90 days from now is about 72.36 (This Astra Agro Lestari probability density function shows the probability of Astra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astra Agro Lestari price to stay between its current price of 6,275 and 6,650 at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.91 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Astra Agro has a beta of 0.14. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astra Agro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astra Agro Lestari will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Astra Agro Lestari has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Astra Agro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Astra Agro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Agro Lestari. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Astra Agro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astra Agro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astra Agro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astra Agro Lestari, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astra Agro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 221.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
Astra Agro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astra Agro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astra Agro Lestari can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Astra Agro Lestari generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 80.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Astra Agro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astra Agro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra Agro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 T |
Astra Agro Technical Analysis
Astra Agro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astra Agro Lestari. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astra Agro Predictive Forecast Models
Astra Agro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Astra Agro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astra Agro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Astra Agro Lestari
Checking the ongoing alerts about Astra Agro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astra Agro Lestari help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Astra Agro Lestari generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 80.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Astra Stock
Astra Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Agro security.