Air Products (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 393.24
| A1PD34 Stock | 448.50 1.80 0.40% |
Air |
Air Products Target Price Odds to finish below 393.24
The tendency of Air Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 393.24 or more in 90 days |
| 448.50 | 90 days | 393.24 | roughly 2.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Air Products to drop to 393.24 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.96 (This Air Products and probability density function shows the probability of Air Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Air Products price to stay between 393.24 and its current price of 448.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Air Products and has a beta of -0.42. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Air Products are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Air Products and is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Air Products and has an alpha of 0.2114, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Air Products Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Air Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Air Products. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Air Products' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Air Products' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Air Products.Air Products Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Air Products is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Air Products' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Air Products and, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Air Products within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 31.61 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Air Products Technical Analysis
Air Products' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Air Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Air Products and. In general, you should focus on analyzing Air Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Air Products Predictive Forecast Models
Air Products' time-series forecasting models is one of many Air Products' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Air Products' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Air Products in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Air Products' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Air Products options trading.