Pampa Energa (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.20
| 9PAA Stock | EUR 85.00 3.00 3.66% |
Pampa |
Pampa Energa Target Price Odds to finish below 53.20
The tendency of Pampa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 53.20 or more in 90 days |
| 85.00 | 90 days | 53.20 | about 13.98 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Pampa Energa to drop to € 53.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.98 (This Pampa Energa SA probability density function shows the probability of Pampa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Pampa Energa SA price to stay between € 53.20 and its current price of €85.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Pampa Energa has a beta of 0.63. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Pampa Energa average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Pampa Energa SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Pampa Energa SA has an alpha of 0.6799, implying that it can generate a 0.68 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Pampa Energa Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Pampa Energa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pampa Energa SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pampa Energa Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Pampa Energa is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Pampa Energa's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Pampa Energa SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Pampa Energa within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.63 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 11.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.27 |
Pampa Energa Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Pampa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Pampa Energa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pampa Energa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B |
Pampa Energa Technical Analysis
Pampa Energa's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Pampa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Pampa Energa SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Pampa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Pampa Energa Predictive Forecast Models
Pampa Energa's time-series forecasting models is one of many Pampa Energa's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Pampa Energa's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Pampa Energa in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Pampa Energa's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Pampa Energa options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Pampa Stock
Pampa Energa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pampa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pampa with respect to the benefits of owning Pampa Energa security.