PennyMac Mortgage (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.52
| 8PM Stock | EUR 12.70 0.10 0.79% |
PennyMac |
PennyMac Mortgage Target Price Odds to finish below 12.52
The tendency of PennyMac Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 12.52 or more in 90 days |
| 12.70 | 90 days | 12.52 | about 56.07 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PennyMac Mortgage to drop to € 12.52 or more in 90 days from now is about 56.07 (This PennyMac Mortgage Investment probability density function shows the probability of PennyMac Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PennyMac Mortgage price to stay between € 12.52 and its current price of €12.7 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.41 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon PennyMac Mortgage has a beta of 0.37. This suggests as returns on the market go up, PennyMac Mortgage average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding PennyMac Mortgage Investment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally PennyMac Mortgage Investment has an alpha of 0.0356, implying that it can generate a 0.0356 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PennyMac Mortgage Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PennyMac Mortgage
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PennyMac Mortgage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PennyMac Mortgage Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PennyMac Mortgage is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PennyMac Mortgage's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PennyMac Mortgage Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PennyMac Mortgage within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
PennyMac Mortgage Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PennyMac Mortgage for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PennyMac Mortgage can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| PennyMac Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| PennyMac Mortgage has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 103.11 M. Net Loss for the year was (73.29 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (321.2 M). | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
PennyMac Mortgage Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PennyMac Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PennyMac Mortgage's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PennyMac Mortgage's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.9 M |
PennyMac Mortgage Technical Analysis
PennyMac Mortgage's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PennyMac Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PennyMac Mortgage Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing PennyMac Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PennyMac Mortgage Predictive Forecast Models
PennyMac Mortgage's time-series forecasting models is one of many PennyMac Mortgage's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PennyMac Mortgage's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PennyMac Mortgage
Checking the ongoing alerts about PennyMac Mortgage for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PennyMac Mortgage help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| PennyMac Mortgage has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| PennyMac Mortgage has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 103.11 M. Net Loss for the year was (73.29 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (321.2 M). | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in PennyMac Stock
When determining whether PennyMac Mortgage is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if PennyMac Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Pennymac Mortgage Investment Stock:Check out PennyMac Mortgage Backtesting, PennyMac Mortgage Valuation, PennyMac Mortgage Correlation, PennyMac Mortgage Hype Analysis, PennyMac Mortgage Volatility, PennyMac Mortgage History as well as PennyMac Mortgage Performance. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..