Acadia Healthcare (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 40.29
| 7RA Stock | 26.40 0.60 2.33% |
Acadia |
Acadia Healthcare Target Price Odds to finish over 40.29
The tendency of Acadia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 40.29 or more in 90 days |
| 26.40 | 90 days | 40.29 | about 35.53 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acadia Healthcare to move over 40.29 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.53 (This Acadia Healthcare Co probability density function shows the probability of Acadia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Acadia Healthcare price to stay between its current price of 26.40 and 40.29 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.6 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Acadia Healthcare has a beta of 0.81. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Acadia Healthcare average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Acadia Healthcare Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Acadia Healthcare Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Acadia Healthcare Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Acadia Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acadia Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acadia Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Acadia Healthcare Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acadia Healthcare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acadia Healthcare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acadia Healthcare Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acadia Healthcare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.46 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Acadia Healthcare Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acadia Healthcare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acadia Healthcare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Acadia Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acadia Healthcare has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis
Acadia Healthcare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acadia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acadia Healthcare Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acadia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Acadia Healthcare Predictive Forecast Models
Acadia Healthcare's time-series forecasting models is one of many Acadia Healthcare's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Acadia Healthcare's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Acadia Healthcare
Checking the ongoing alerts about Acadia Healthcare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acadia Healthcare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Acadia Healthcare generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Acadia Healthcare has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Additional Tools for Acadia Stock Analysis
When running Acadia Healthcare's price analysis, check to measure Acadia Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acadia Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Acadia Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acadia Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acadia Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acadia Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.