Cathay Biotech (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.91
| 688065 Stock | 39.31 0.02 0.05% |
Cathay |
Cathay Biotech Target Price Odds to finish below 31.91
The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 31.91 or more in 90 days |
| 39.31 | 90 days | 31.91 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay Biotech to drop to 31.91 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cathay Biotech probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay Biotech price to stay between 31.91 and its current price of 39.31 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cathay Biotech has a beta of -0.077. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cathay Biotech are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cathay Biotech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cathay Biotech has an alpha of 0.333, implying that it can generate a 0.33 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cathay Biotech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Cathay Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cathay Biotech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay Biotech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay Biotech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay Biotech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay Biotech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.33 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Cathay Biotech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cathay Biotech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cathay Biotech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cathay Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cathay Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cathay Biotech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Cathay General Bancorp Shares Purchased by Dean Investment Associates LLC - MarketBeat |
Cathay Biotech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 583.4 M |
Cathay Biotech Technical Analysis
Cathay Biotech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay Biotech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cathay Biotech Predictive Forecast Models
Cathay Biotech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay Biotech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay Biotech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cathay Biotech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cathay Biotech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cathay Biotech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cathay Biotech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cathay Biotech has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Cathay Biotech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Cathay General Bancorp Shares Purchased by Dean Investment Associates LLC - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in Cathay Stock
Cathay Biotech financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cathay Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cathay with respect to the benefits of owning Cathay Biotech security.