Rafael Microelectronics (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 162.08
| 6568 Stock | TWD 149.00 1.00 0.67% |
Rafael |
Rafael Microelectronics Target Price Odds to finish below 162.08
The tendency of Rafael Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 162.08 after 90 days |
| 149.00 | 90 days | 162.08 | more than 94.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Rafael Microelectronics to stay under NT$ 162.08 after 90 days from now is more than 94.0 (This Rafael Microelectronics probability density function shows the probability of Rafael Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Rafael Microelectronics price to stay between its current price of NT$ 149.00 and NT$ 162.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Rafael Microelectronics has a beta of 0.46. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Rafael Microelectronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Rafael Microelectronics will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Rafael Microelectronics has an alpha of 0.3513, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Rafael Microelectronics Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Rafael Microelectronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rafael Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Rafael Microelectronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Rafael Microelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Rafael Microelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Rafael Microelectronics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Rafael Microelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Rafael Microelectronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Rafael Microelectronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Rafael Microelectronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Rafael Microelectronics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Rafael Microelectronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Rafael Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Rafael Microelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rafael Microelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.4 M |
Rafael Microelectronics Technical Analysis
Rafael Microelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Rafael Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Rafael Microelectronics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Rafael Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Rafael Microelectronics Predictive Forecast Models
Rafael Microelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Rafael Microelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Rafael Microelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Rafael Microelectronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Rafael Microelectronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Rafael Microelectronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Rafael Microelectronics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 21.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Rafael Stock Analysis
When running Rafael Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure Rafael Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Rafael Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of Rafael Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Rafael Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Rafael Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Rafael Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.