Nancal Energy-Saving (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.19
| 603859 Stock | 31.83 3.32 9.45% |
Nancal |
Nancal Energy-Saving Target Price Odds to finish over 30.19
The tendency of Nancal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 30.19 in 90 days |
| 31.83 | 90 days | 30.19 | about 80.74 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Nancal Energy-Saving to stay above 30.19 in 90 days from now is about 80.74 (This Nancal Energy Saving Tech probability density function shows the probability of Nancal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Nancal Energy Saving price to stay between 30.19 and its current price of 31.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Nancal Energy Saving Tech has a beta of -0.21. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Nancal Energy-Saving are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Nancal Energy Saving Tech is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Nancal Energy Saving Tech has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Nancal Energy-Saving Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Nancal Energy-Saving
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nancal Energy Saving. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Nancal Energy-Saving Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Nancal Energy-Saving is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Nancal Energy-Saving's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Nancal Energy Saving Tech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Nancal Energy-Saving within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0057 |
Nancal Energy-Saving Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Nancal Energy-Saving for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Nancal Energy Saving can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Nancal Energy Saving had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Nancal Energy-Saving Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Nancal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Nancal Energy-Saving's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nancal Energy-Saving's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 246.5 M |
Nancal Energy-Saving Technical Analysis
Nancal Energy-Saving's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Nancal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Nancal Energy Saving Tech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Nancal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Nancal Energy-Saving Predictive Forecast Models
Nancal Energy-Saving's time-series forecasting models is one of many Nancal Energy-Saving's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Nancal Energy-Saving's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Nancal Energy Saving
Checking the ongoing alerts about Nancal Energy-Saving for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nancal Energy Saving help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Nancal Energy Saving had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Nancal Stock
Nancal Energy-Saving financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nancal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nancal with respect to the benefits of owning Nancal Energy-Saving security.