Xingguang Agricultural (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.7
| 603789 Stock | 10.64 0.12 1.12% |
Xingguang |
Xingguang Agricultural Target Price Odds to finish below 11.7
The tendency of Xingguang Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 11.70 after 90 days |
| 10.64 | 90 days | 11.70 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Xingguang Agricultural to stay under 11.70 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Xingguang Agricultural Mach probability density function shows the probability of Xingguang Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Xingguang Agricultural price to stay between its current price of 10.64 and 11.70 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Xingguang Agricultural has a beta of 0.5. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Xingguang Agricultural average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Xingguang Agricultural Mach will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Xingguang Agricultural Mach has an alpha of 0.7405, implying that it can generate a 0.74 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Xingguang Agricultural Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Xingguang Agricultural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xingguang Agricultural. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Xingguang Agricultural Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Xingguang Agricultural is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Xingguang Agricultural's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Xingguang Agricultural Mach, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Xingguang Agricultural within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
Xingguang Agricultural Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Xingguang Agricultural for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Xingguang Agricultural can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Xingguang Agricultural appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 308.4 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.79 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (6.44 M). | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Xingguang Agricultural Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Xingguang Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Xingguang Agricultural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xingguang Agricultural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 277.4 M |
Xingguang Agricultural Technical Analysis
Xingguang Agricultural's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Xingguang Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Xingguang Agricultural Mach. In general, you should focus on analyzing Xingguang Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Xingguang Agricultural Predictive Forecast Models
Xingguang Agricultural's time-series forecasting models is one of many Xingguang Agricultural's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Xingguang Agricultural's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Xingguang Agricultural
Checking the ongoing alerts about Xingguang Agricultural for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Xingguang Agricultural help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Xingguang Agricultural appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 308.4 M. Net Loss for the year was (55.79 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (6.44 M). | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Xingguang Stock
Xingguang Agricultural financial ratios help investors to determine whether Xingguang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Xingguang with respect to the benefits of owning Xingguang Agricultural security.