Qijing Machinery (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.91
| 603677 Stock | 12.59 0.44 3.38% |
Qijing |
Qijing Machinery Target Price Odds to finish below 3.91
The tendency of Qijing Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 3.91 or more in 90 days |
| 12.59 | 90 days | 3.91 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Qijing Machinery to drop to 3.91 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Qijing Machinery probability density function shows the probability of Qijing Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Qijing Machinery price to stay between 3.91 and its current price of 12.59 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Qijing Machinery has a beta of -0.47. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Qijing Machinery are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Qijing Machinery is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Qijing Machinery has an alpha of 0.3848, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Qijing Machinery Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Qijing Machinery
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Qijing Machinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Qijing Machinery Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Qijing Machinery is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Qijing Machinery's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Qijing Machinery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Qijing Machinery within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.26 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Qijing Machinery Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Qijing Machinery for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Qijing Machinery can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Qijing Machinery had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Qijing Machinery is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Qijing Machinery Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Qijing Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Qijing Machinery's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Qijing Machinery's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.1 M |
Qijing Machinery Technical Analysis
Qijing Machinery's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Qijing Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Qijing Machinery. In general, you should focus on analyzing Qijing Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Qijing Machinery Predictive Forecast Models
Qijing Machinery's time-series forecasting models is one of many Qijing Machinery's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Qijing Machinery's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Qijing Machinery
Checking the ongoing alerts about Qijing Machinery for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Qijing Machinery help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Qijing Machinery had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Qijing Machinery is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Qijing Stock
Qijing Machinery financial ratios help investors to determine whether Qijing Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Qijing with respect to the benefits of owning Qijing Machinery security.