Thinkingdom Media (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.08
| 603096 Stock | 20.34 0.27 1.35% |
Thinkingdom |
Thinkingdom Media Target Price Odds to finish below 18.08
The tendency of Thinkingdom Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 18.08 or more in 90 days |
| 20.34 | 90 days | 18.08 | about 48.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thinkingdom Media to drop to 18.08 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.51 (This Thinkingdom Media Group probability density function shows the probability of Thinkingdom Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Thinkingdom Media price to stay between 18.08 and its current price of 20.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.97 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Thinkingdom Media has a beta of 0.0021. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Thinkingdom Media average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Thinkingdom Media Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Thinkingdom Media Group has an alpha of 0.4967, implying that it can generate a 0.5 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thinkingdom Media Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thinkingdom Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thinkingdom Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Thinkingdom Media Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thinkingdom Media is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thinkingdom Media's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thinkingdom Media Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thinkingdom Media within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.50 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Thinkingdom Media Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Thinkingdom Media for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Thinkingdom Media can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Thinkingdom Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Thinkingdom Media is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Thinkingdom Media Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thinkingdom Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thinkingdom Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thinkingdom Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 162.5 M |
Thinkingdom Media Technical Analysis
Thinkingdom Media's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thinkingdom Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thinkingdom Media Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thinkingdom Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thinkingdom Media Predictive Forecast Models
Thinkingdom Media's time-series forecasting models is one of many Thinkingdom Media's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thinkingdom Media's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Thinkingdom Media
Checking the ongoing alerts about Thinkingdom Media for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Thinkingdom Media help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Thinkingdom Media appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Thinkingdom Media is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Thinkingdom Stock
Thinkingdom Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thinkingdom Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thinkingdom with respect to the benefits of owning Thinkingdom Media security.