PetroChina (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.66
| 601857 Stock | 8.34 0.08 0.95% |
PetroChina |
PetroChina Target Price Odds to finish over 14.66
The tendency of PetroChina Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 14.66 or more in 90 days |
| 8.34 | 90 days | 14.66 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PetroChina to move over 14.66 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This PetroChina Co Ltd probability density function shows the probability of PetroChina Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PetroChina price to stay between its current price of 8.34 and 14.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.46 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PetroChina Co Ltd has a beta of -0.0578. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PetroChina are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PetroChina Co Ltd is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PetroChina Co Ltd has an alpha of 0.1102, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PetroChina Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PetroChina
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PetroChina. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PetroChina Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PetroChina is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PetroChina's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PetroChina Co Ltd, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PetroChina within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
PetroChina Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PetroChina for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PetroChina can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
PetroChina Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of PetroChina Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PetroChina's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PetroChina's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 183 B |
PetroChina Technical Analysis
PetroChina's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. PetroChina Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PetroChina Co Ltd. In general, you should focus on analyzing PetroChina Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PetroChina Predictive Forecast Models
PetroChina's time-series forecasting models is one of many PetroChina's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PetroChina's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PetroChina
Checking the ongoing alerts about PetroChina for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PetroChina help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in PetroChina Stock
PetroChina financial ratios help investors to determine whether PetroChina Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in PetroChina with respect to the benefits of owning PetroChina security.