Changchun Engley (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.38
| 601279 Stock | 4.29 0.01 0.23% |
Changchun |
Changchun Engley Target Price Odds to finish over 7.38
The tendency of Changchun Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 7.38 or more in 90 days |
| 4.29 | 90 days | 7.38 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Changchun Engley to move over 7.38 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Changchun Engley Automobile probability density function shows the probability of Changchun Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Changchun Engley Aut price to stay between its current price of 4.29 and 7.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Changchun Engley has a beta of 0.21. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Changchun Engley average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Changchun Engley Automobile will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Changchun Engley Automobile has an alpha of 0.3761, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Changchun Engley Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Changchun Engley
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Changchun Engley Aut. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Changchun Engley Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Changchun Engley is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Changchun Engley's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Changchun Engley Automobile, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Changchun Engley within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.37 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.1 |
Changchun Engley Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Changchun Engley for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Changchun Engley Aut can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Changchun Engley Aut appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Changchun Engley Aut is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Huada Automotive TechnologyLtds 29 percent CAGR outpaced the companys earnings growth over the same five-year period - Simply Wall St |
Changchun Engley Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Changchun Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Changchun Engley's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Changchun Engley's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B |
Changchun Engley Technical Analysis
Changchun Engley's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Changchun Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Changchun Engley Automobile. In general, you should focus on analyzing Changchun Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Changchun Engley Predictive Forecast Models
Changchun Engley's time-series forecasting models is one of many Changchun Engley's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Changchun Engley's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Changchun Engley Aut
Checking the ongoing alerts about Changchun Engley for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Changchun Engley Aut help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Changchun Engley Aut appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Changchun Engley Aut is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Huada Automotive TechnologyLtds 29 percent CAGR outpaced the companys earnings growth over the same five-year period - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Changchun Stock
Changchun Engley financial ratios help investors to determine whether Changchun Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Changchun with respect to the benefits of owning Changchun Engley security.