CITIC Metal (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.68

601061 Stock   7.96  0.04  0.51%   
CITIC Metal's future price is the expected price of CITIC Metal instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CITIC Metal Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CITIC Metal Backtesting, CITIC Metal Valuation, CITIC Metal Correlation, CITIC Metal Hype Analysis, CITIC Metal Volatility, CITIC Metal History as well as CITIC Metal Performance.
  
Please specify CITIC Metal's target price for which you would like CITIC Metal odds to be computed.

CITIC Metal Target Price Odds to finish below 5.68

The tendency of CITIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  5.68  or more in 90 days
 7.96 90 days 5.68 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CITIC Metal to drop to  5.68  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CITIC Metal Co probability density function shows the probability of CITIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CITIC Metal price to stay between  5.68  and its current price of 7.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CITIC Metal Co has a beta of -0.22. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CITIC Metal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CITIC Metal Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CITIC Metal Co has an alpha of 0.2472, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CITIC Metal Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CITIC Metal

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CITIC Metal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.968.2010.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.356.598.83
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CITIC Metal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CITIC Metal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CITIC Metal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CITIC Metal.

CITIC Metal Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CITIC Metal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CITIC Metal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CITIC Metal Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CITIC Metal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.25
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.22
σ
Overall volatility
0.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

CITIC Metal Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CITIC Metal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CITIC Metal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 Growth Companies Insiders Are Eager To Own - Yahoo Finance

CITIC Metal Technical Analysis

CITIC Metal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CITIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CITIC Metal Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing CITIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CITIC Metal Predictive Forecast Models

CITIC Metal's time-series forecasting models is one of many CITIC Metal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CITIC Metal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CITIC Metal

Checking the ongoing alerts about CITIC Metal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CITIC Metal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 Growth Companies Insiders Are Eager To Own - Yahoo Finance

Other Information on Investing in CITIC Stock

CITIC Metal financial ratios help investors to determine whether CITIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CITIC with respect to the benefits of owning CITIC Metal security.