CITIC Metal (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.37
| 601061 Stock | 7.53 0.03 0.40% |
CITIC |
CITIC Metal Target Price Odds to finish below 2.37
The tendency of CITIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 2.37 or more in 90 days |
| 7.53 | 90 days | 2.37 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CITIC Metal to drop to 2.37 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CITIC Metal Co probability density function shows the probability of CITIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CITIC Metal price to stay between 2.37 and its current price of 7.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.83 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CITIC Metal Co has a beta of -0.0748. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CITIC Metal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CITIC Metal Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CITIC Metal Co has an alpha of 0.131, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CITIC Metal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CITIC Metal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CITIC Metal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CITIC Metal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CITIC Metal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CITIC Metal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CITIC Metal Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CITIC Metal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
CITIC Metal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CITIC Metal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CITIC Metal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CITIC Metal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
CITIC Metal Technical Analysis
CITIC Metal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CITIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CITIC Metal Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing CITIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CITIC Metal Predictive Forecast Models
CITIC Metal's time-series forecasting models is one of many CITIC Metal's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CITIC Metal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CITIC Metal
Checking the ongoing alerts about CITIC Metal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CITIC Metal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CITIC Metal generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in CITIC Stock
CITIC Metal financial ratios help investors to determine whether CITIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CITIC with respect to the benefits of owning CITIC Metal security.