China Petroleum (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.8

600028 Stock   6.61  0.07  1.07%   
China Petroleum's future price is the expected price of China Petroleum instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Petroleum Chemical performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out China Petroleum Backtesting, China Petroleum Valuation, China Petroleum Correlation, China Petroleum Hype Analysis, China Petroleum Volatility, China Petroleum History as well as China Petroleum Performance.
  
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China Petroleum Target Price Odds to finish below 6.8

The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  6.80  after 90 days
 6.61 90 days 6.80 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Petroleum to stay under  6.80  after 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This China Petroleum Chemical probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Petroleum Chemical price to stay between its current price of  6.61  and  6.80  at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Petroleum has a beta of 0.15. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Petroleum average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Petroleum Chemical will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Petroleum Chemical has an alpha of 0.0984, implying that it can generate a 0.0984 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   China Petroleum Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Petroleum Chemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.996.618.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.986.608.23
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Petroleum. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Petroleum's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Petroleum's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Petroleum Chemical.

China Petroleum Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Petroleum is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Petroleum's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Petroleum Chemical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Petroleum within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.1
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.15
σ
Overall volatility
0.19
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

China Petroleum Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Petroleum for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Petroleum Chemical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: Chinas First Factory-Based Seawater Hydrogen Production Project Completed at Sinopec Qingdao Refinery - Marketscreener.com

China Petroleum Technical Analysis

China Petroleum's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Petroleum Chemical. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Petroleum Predictive Forecast Models

China Petroleum's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Petroleum's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Petroleum's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Petroleum Chemical

Checking the ongoing alerts about China Petroleum for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Petroleum Chemical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Petroleum generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: Chinas First Factory-Based Seawater Hydrogen Production Project Completed at Sinopec Qingdao Refinery - Marketscreener.com

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Petroleum security.