Heineken Holding (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 62.98
| 4H5 Stock | EUR 58.75 0.60 1.03% |
Heineken |
Heineken Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 62.98
The tendency of Heineken Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 62.98 after 90 days |
| 58.75 | 90 days | 62.98 | about 33.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Heineken Holding to stay under € 62.98 after 90 days from now is about 33.02 (This Heineken Holding NV probability density function shows the probability of Heineken Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Heineken Holding price to stay between its current price of € 58.75 and € 62.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 28.92 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Heineken Holding has a beta of 0.0967. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Heineken Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heineken Holding NV will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Heineken Holding NV has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Heineken Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Heineken Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Heineken Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Heineken Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Heineken Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Heineken Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Heineken Holding NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Heineken Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Heineken Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Heineken Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Heineken Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Heineken Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Heineken Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Heineken Holding NV has accumulated 11.99 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 103.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Heineken Holding has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Heineken Holding until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Heineken Holding's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Heineken Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Heineken to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Heineken Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Heineken Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Heineken Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Heineken Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Heineken Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 287.3 M |
Heineken Holding Technical Analysis
Heineken Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Heineken Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Heineken Holding NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing Heineken Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Heineken Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Heineken Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Heineken Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Heineken Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Heineken Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Heineken Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Heineken Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Heineken Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Heineken Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Heineken Holding NV has accumulated 11.99 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 103.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Heineken Holding has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Heineken Holding until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Heineken Holding's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Heineken Holding sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Heineken to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Heineken Holding's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Heineken Stock
Heineken Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Heineken Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Heineken with respect to the benefits of owning Heineken Holding security.