Industrias Penoles (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.86
| 4FO Stock | EUR 15.50 0.10 0.64% |
Industrias |
Industrias Penoles Target Price Odds to finish below 11.86
The tendency of Industrias Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 11.86 or more in 90 days |
| 15.50 | 90 days | 11.86 | about 10.2 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Industrias Penoles to drop to € 11.86 or more in 90 days from now is about 10.2 (This Industrias Penoles Sab probability density function shows the probability of Industrias Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Industrias Penoles Sab price to stay between € 11.86 and its current price of €15.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 87.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Industrias Penoles Sab has a beta of -1.29. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Industrias Penoles Sab are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Industrias Penoles is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Industrias Penoles Sab has an alpha of 0.7368, implying that it can generate a 0.74 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Industrias Penoles Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Industrias Penoles
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Industrias Penoles Sab. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Industrias Penoles Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Industrias Penoles is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Industrias Penoles' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Industrias Penoles Sab, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Industrias Penoles within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.74 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Industrias Penoles Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Industrias Penoles for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Industrias Penoles Sab can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Industrias Penoles appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 53.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Industrias Penoles Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Industrias Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Industrias Penoles' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Industrias Penoles' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 397.5 M |
Industrias Penoles Technical Analysis
Industrias Penoles' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Industrias Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Industrias Penoles Sab. In general, you should focus on analyzing Industrias Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Industrias Penoles Predictive Forecast Models
Industrias Penoles' time-series forecasting models is one of many Industrias Penoles' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Industrias Penoles' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Industrias Penoles Sab
Checking the ongoing alerts about Industrias Penoles for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Industrias Penoles Sab help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Industrias Penoles appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 53.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Industrias Stock
Industrias Penoles financial ratios help investors to determine whether Industrias Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Industrias with respect to the benefits of owning Industrias Penoles security.