Vats Liquor (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 17.74
| 300755 Stock | 17.84 0.49 2.82% |
Vats |
Vats Liquor Target Price Odds to finish below 17.74
The tendency of Vats Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 17.74 or more in 90 days |
| 17.84 | 90 days | 17.74 | about 55.38 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vats Liquor to drop to 17.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 55.38 (This Vats Liquor Chain probability density function shows the probability of Vats Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vats Liquor Chain price to stay between 17.74 and its current price of 17.84 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Vats Liquor has a beta of 0.81. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Vats Liquor average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vats Liquor Chain will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vats Liquor Chain has an alpha of 0.7816, implying that it can generate a 0.78 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vats Liquor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vats Liquor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vats Liquor Chain. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vats Liquor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vats Liquor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vats Liquor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vats Liquor Chain, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vats Liquor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Vats Liquor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vats Liquor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vats Liquor Chain can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vats Liquor Chain generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vats Liquor Chain has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vats Liquor Chain is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: VATS Liquor Chain Store Management earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last three years, but the stock rises 7.3 percent this past week - Simply Wall St |
Vats Liquor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vats Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vats Liquor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vats Liquor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 416.8 M |
Vats Liquor Technical Analysis
Vats Liquor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vats Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vats Liquor Chain. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vats Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vats Liquor Predictive Forecast Models
Vats Liquor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vats Liquor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vats Liquor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vats Liquor Chain
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vats Liquor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vats Liquor Chain help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vats Liquor Chain generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Vats Liquor Chain has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Vats Liquor Chain is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: VATS Liquor Chain Store Management earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last three years, but the stock rises 7.3 percent this past week - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Vats Stock
Vats Liquor financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vats Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vats with respect to the benefits of owning Vats Liquor security.