National Aerospace (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 89.13
| 3004 Stock | TWD 89.80 0.10 0.11% |
National |
National Aerospace Target Price Odds to finish below 89.13
The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 89.13 or more in 90 days |
| 89.80 | 90 days | 89.13 | about 21.08 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Aerospace to drop to NT$ 89.13 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.08 (This National Aerospace Fasteners probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of National Aerospace price to stay between NT$ 89.13 and its current price of NT$89.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.32 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon National Aerospace has a beta of 0.39. This suggests as returns on the market go up, National Aerospace average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding National Aerospace Fasteners will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally National Aerospace Fasteners has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. National Aerospace Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for National Aerospace
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Aerospace Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Aerospace is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Aerospace's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Aerospace Fasteners, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Aerospace within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.32 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
National Aerospace Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Aerospace for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Aerospace can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| National Aerospace generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Aerospace has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (96.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 166.09 M. | |
| About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
National Aerospace Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Aerospace's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Aerospace's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.6 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 13.8 M |
National Aerospace Technical Analysis
National Aerospace's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. National Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Aerospace Fasteners. In general, you should focus on analyzing National Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
National Aerospace Predictive Forecast Models
National Aerospace's time-series forecasting models is one of many National Aerospace's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary National Aerospace's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about National Aerospace
Checking the ongoing alerts about National Aerospace for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for National Aerospace help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| National Aerospace generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| National Aerospace has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.43 B. Net Loss for the year was (96.73 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 166.09 M. | |
| About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis
When running National Aerospace's price analysis, check to measure National Aerospace's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Aerospace is operating at the current time. Most of National Aerospace's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Aerospace's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Aerospace's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Aerospace to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.