Aba Chemicals (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.35
| 300261 Stock | 7.98 0.09 1.14% |
Aba |
Aba Chemicals Target Price Odds to finish over 5.35
The tendency of Aba Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 5.35 in 90 days |
| 7.98 | 90 days | 5.35 | about 84.63 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aba Chemicals to stay above 5.35 in 90 days from now is about 84.63 (This Aba Chemicals Corp probability density function shows the probability of Aba Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aba Chemicals Corp price to stay between 5.35 and its current price of 7.98 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aba Chemicals Corp has a beta of -0.77. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aba Chemicals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aba Chemicals Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aba Chemicals Corp has an alpha of 0.7878, implying that it can generate a 0.79 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aba Chemicals Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aba Chemicals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aba Chemicals Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aba Chemicals Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aba Chemicals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aba Chemicals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aba Chemicals Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aba Chemicals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.77 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Aba Chemicals Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aba Chemicals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aba Chemicals Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aba Chemicals Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aba Chemicals Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (82.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 255.24 M. | |
| Aba Chemicals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Aba Chemicals Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aba Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aba Chemicals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aba Chemicals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 963.3 M |
Aba Chemicals Technical Analysis
Aba Chemicals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aba Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aba Chemicals Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aba Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aba Chemicals Predictive Forecast Models
Aba Chemicals' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aba Chemicals' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aba Chemicals' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aba Chemicals Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aba Chemicals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aba Chemicals Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aba Chemicals Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Aba Chemicals Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 1.28 B. Net Loss for the year was (82.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 255.24 M. | |
| Aba Chemicals generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 44.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Aba Stock
Aba Chemicals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aba Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aba with respect to the benefits of owning Aba Chemicals security.