STARLUX Airlines (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 28.34
| 2646 Stock | 28.40 0.20 0.71% |
STARLUX |
STARLUX Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 28.34
The tendency of STARLUX Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 28.34 or more in 90 days |
| 28.40 | 90 days | 28.34 | about 33.02 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of STARLUX Airlines to drop to 28.34 or more in 90 days from now is about 33.02 (This STARLUX Airlines Co probability density function shows the probability of STARLUX Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of STARLUX Airlines price to stay between 28.34 and its current price of 28.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon STARLUX Airlines Co has a beta of -0.0556. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding STARLUX Airlines are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, STARLUX Airlines Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally STARLUX Airlines Co has an alpha of 0.0342, implying that it can generate a 0.0342 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). STARLUX Airlines Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for STARLUX Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as STARLUX Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.STARLUX Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. STARLUX Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the STARLUX Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold STARLUX Airlines Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of STARLUX Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
STARLUX Airlines Technical Analysis
STARLUX Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. STARLUX Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of STARLUX Airlines Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing STARLUX Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
STARLUX Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
STARLUX Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many STARLUX Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary STARLUX Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards STARLUX Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, STARLUX Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from STARLUX Airlines options trading.
Additional Tools for STARLUX Stock Analysis
When running STARLUX Airlines' price analysis, check to measure STARLUX Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy STARLUX Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of STARLUX Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of STARLUX Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move STARLUX Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of STARLUX Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.