China Airlines (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.65
| 2610 Stock | TWD 26.50 0.45 1.67% |
China |
China Airlines Target Price Odds to finish below 29.65
The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 29.65 after 90 days |
| 26.50 | 90 days | 29.65 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Airlines to stay under NT$ 29.65 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This China Airlines probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Airlines price to stay between its current price of NT$ 26.50 and NT$ 29.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.89 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Airlines has a beta of 0.0015. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Airlines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Airlines has an alpha of 0.4125, implying that it can generate a 0.41 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). China Airlines Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for China Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.China Airlines Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
China Airlines Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| China Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| China Airlines has accumulated 96.19 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 228.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. China Airlines has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
China Airlines Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.7 B |
China Airlines Technical Analysis
China Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
China Airlines Predictive Forecast Models
China Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many China Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about China Airlines
Checking the ongoing alerts about China Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| China Airlines has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| China Airlines has accumulated 96.19 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 228.4, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. China Airlines has a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist China Airlines until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, China Airlines' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like China Airlines sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for China to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about China Airlines' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Additional Tools for China Stock Analysis
When running China Airlines' price analysis, check to measure China Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of China Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.