Cathay Consolidated (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 108.74
| 1342 Stock | TWD 105.50 2.50 2.31% |
Cathay |
Cathay Consolidated Target Price Odds to finish over 108.74
The tendency of Cathay Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over NT$ 108.74 or more in 90 days |
| 105.50 | 90 days | 108.74 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cathay Consolidated to move over NT$ 108.74 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Cathay Consolidated probability density function shows the probability of Cathay Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cathay Consolidated price to stay between its current price of NT$ 105.50 and NT$ 108.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.59 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cathay Consolidated has a beta of -0.0186. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cathay Consolidated are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cathay Consolidated is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cathay Consolidated has an alpha of 0.2288, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Cathay Consolidated Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cathay Consolidated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cathay Consolidated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Cathay Consolidated Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cathay Consolidated is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cathay Consolidated's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cathay Consolidated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cathay Consolidated within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Cathay Consolidated Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cathay Consolidated for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cathay Consolidated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Cathay Consolidated Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cathay Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cathay Consolidated's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cathay Consolidated's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.8 M |
Cathay Consolidated Technical Analysis
Cathay Consolidated's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cathay Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cathay Consolidated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cathay Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cathay Consolidated Predictive Forecast Models
Cathay Consolidated's time-series forecasting models is one of many Cathay Consolidated's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cathay Consolidated's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cathay Consolidated
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cathay Consolidated for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cathay Consolidated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 76.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Cathay Stock Analysis
When running Cathay Consolidated's price analysis, check to measure Cathay Consolidated's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cathay Consolidated is operating at the current time. Most of Cathay Consolidated's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cathay Consolidated's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cathay Consolidated's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cathay Consolidated to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.