ALM ES (Germany) Chance of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 125.45
| 0P0001NBQF | 117.50 0.00 0.00% |
ALM |
ALM ES Target Price Odds to finish below 125.45
The tendency of ALM Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 125.45 after 90 days |
| 117.50 | 90 days | 125.45 | about 18.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ALM ES to stay under 125.45 after 90 days from now is about 18.17 (This ALM ES Actions probability density function shows the probability of ALM Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ALM ES Actions price to stay between its current price of 117.50 and 125.45 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.38 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ALM ES has a beta of 0.23. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ALM ES average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ALM ES Actions will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ALM ES Actions has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ALM ES Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ALM ES
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALM ES Actions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ALM ES Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ALM ES is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ALM ES's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ALM ES Actions, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ALM ES within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
ALM ES Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ALM ES for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ALM ES Actions can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| ALM ES Actions generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
ALM ES Technical Analysis
ALM ES's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALM Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ALM ES Actions. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALM Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ALM ES Predictive Forecast Models
ALM ES's time-series forecasting models is one of many ALM ES's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ALM ES's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ALM ES Actions
Checking the ongoing alerts about ALM ES for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ALM ES Actions help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| ALM ES Actions generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
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