Polar Capital (UK) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 350.14
| 0P0000XSLC | 3.69 0.03 0.81% |
Polar |
Polar Capital Target Price Odds to finish below 350.14
The tendency of Polar Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 350.14 after 90 days |
| 3.69 | 90 days | 350.14 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Polar Capital to stay under 350.14 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Polar Capital Funds probability density function shows the probability of Polar Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Polar Capital Funds price to stay between its current price of 3.69 and 350.14 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Polar Capital Funds has a beta of -0.0071. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Polar Capital are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Polar Capital Funds is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Polar Capital Funds has an alpha of 0.0891, implying that it can generate a 0.0891 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Polar Capital Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Polar Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Polar Capital Funds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Polar Capital Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Polar Capital is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Polar Capital's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Polar Capital Funds, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Polar Capital within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0071 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
Polar Capital Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Polar Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Polar Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Polar Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0001 |
Polar Capital Technical Analysis
Polar Capital's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Polar Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Polar Capital Funds. In general, you should focus on analyzing Polar Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Polar Capital Predictive Forecast Models
Polar Capital's time-series forecasting models is one of many Polar Capital's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Polar Capital's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Polar Capital in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Polar Capital's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Polar Capital options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Polar Fund
Polar Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Polar Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Polar with respect to the benefits of owning Polar Capital security.
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