UBS Vitainvest (Switzerland) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Over 159.26
| 0P0000NRCC | 159.74 0.58 0.36% |
UBS |
UBS Vitainvest Target Price Odds to finish over 159.26
The tendency of UBS Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 159.26 in 90 days |
| 159.74 | 90 days | 159.26 | about 12.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UBS Vitainvest to stay above 159.26 in 90 days from now is about 12.33 (This UBS Vitainvest probability density function shows the probability of UBS Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UBS Vitainvest price to stay between 159.26 and its current price of 159.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.22 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UBS Vitainvest has a beta of 0.0746. This suggests as returns on the market go up, UBS Vitainvest average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UBS Vitainvest will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UBS Vitainvest has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. UBS Vitainvest Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UBS Vitainvest
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBS Vitainvest. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UBS Vitainvest Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UBS Vitainvest is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UBS Vitainvest's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UBS Vitainvest , one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UBS Vitainvest within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.0048 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
UBS Vitainvest Technical Analysis
UBS Vitainvest's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UBS Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UBS Vitainvest . In general, you should focus on analyzing UBS Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UBS Vitainvest Predictive Forecast Models
UBS Vitainvest's time-series forecasting models is one of many UBS Vitainvest's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UBS Vitainvest's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UBS Vitainvest in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UBS Vitainvest's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UBS Vitainvest options trading.
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