ALM Offensif (Germany) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 320.88
| 0P00000GIZ | EUR 321.68 2.16 0.68% |
ALM |
ALM Offensif Target Price Odds to finish below 320.88
The tendency of ALM Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 320.88 or more in 90 days |
| 321.68 | 90 days | 320.88 | about 88.25 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ALM Offensif to drop to € 320.88 or more in 90 days from now is about 88.25 (This ALM Offensif probability density function shows the probability of ALM Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ALM Offensif price to stay between € 320.88 and its current price of €321.68 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.78 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ALM Offensif has a beta of 0.079. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ALM Offensif average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ALM Offensif will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ALM Offensif has an alpha of 0.0628, implying that it can generate a 0.0628 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ALM Offensif Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ALM Offensif
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ALM Offensif. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ALM Offensif Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ALM Offensif is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ALM Offensif's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ALM Offensif, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ALM Offensif within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
ALM Offensif Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ALM Offensif for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ALM Offensif can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds about 8.66% of its total net assets in cash |
ALM Offensif Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ALM Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ALM Offensif's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ALM Offensif's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
ALM Offensif Technical Analysis
ALM Offensif's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ALM Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ALM Offensif. In general, you should focus on analyzing ALM Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ALM Offensif Predictive Forecast Models
ALM Offensif's time-series forecasting models is one of many ALM Offensif's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ALM Offensif's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ALM Offensif
Checking the ongoing alerts about ALM Offensif for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ALM Offensif help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund holds about 8.66% of its total net assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in ALM Fund
ALM Offensif financial ratios help investors to determine whether ALM Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ALM with respect to the benefits of owning ALM Offensif security.
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