New Hope (China) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.97

002946 Stock   15.69  0.80  5.37%   
New Hope's future price is the expected price of New Hope instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of New Hope Dairy performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out New Hope Backtesting, New Hope Valuation, New Hope Correlation, New Hope Hype Analysis, New Hope Volatility, New Hope History as well as New Hope Performance.
  
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New Hope Target Price Odds to finish below 15.97

The tendency of New Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  15.97  after 90 days
 15.69 90 days 15.97 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of New Hope to stay under  15.97  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This New Hope Dairy probability density function shows the probability of New Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of New Hope Dairy price to stay between its current price of  15.69  and  15.97  at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon New Hope Dairy has a beta of -0.0793. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding New Hope are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, New Hope Dairy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally New Hope Dairy has an alpha of 0.8221, implying that it can generate a 0.82 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   New Hope Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for New Hope

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Hope Dairy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.4515.1518.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.6611.3615.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
11.7315.4319.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.7712.5614.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Hope. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Hope's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Hope's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in New Hope Dairy.

New Hope Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. New Hope is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the New Hope's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold New Hope Dairy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of New Hope within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.82
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.08
σ
Overall volatility
1.53
Ir
Information ratio 0.20

New Hope Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of New Hope for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for New Hope Dairy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
New Hope Dairy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

New Hope Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of New Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential New Hope's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. New Hope's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding865.8 M

New Hope Technical Analysis

New Hope's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. New Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of New Hope Dairy. In general, you should focus on analyzing New Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

New Hope Predictive Forecast Models

New Hope's time-series forecasting models is one of many New Hope's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary New Hope's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about New Hope Dairy

Checking the ongoing alerts about New Hope for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for New Hope Dairy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
New Hope Dairy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 84.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in New Stock

New Hope financial ratios help investors to determine whether New Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in New with respect to the benefits of owning New Hope security.