TongFu Microelectronics (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 36.92

002156 Stock   29.15  0.64  2.15%   
TongFu Microelectronics' future price is the expected price of TongFu Microelectronics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of TongFu Microelectronics Co performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out TongFu Microelectronics Backtesting, TongFu Microelectronics Valuation, TongFu Microelectronics Correlation, TongFu Microelectronics Hype Analysis, TongFu Microelectronics Volatility, TongFu Microelectronics History as well as TongFu Microelectronics Performance.
  
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TongFu Microelectronics Target Price Odds to finish over 36.92

The tendency of TongFu Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  36.92  or more in 90 days
 29.15 90 days 36.92 
roughly 2.35
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TongFu Microelectronics to move over  36.92  or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.35 (This TongFu Microelectronics Co probability density function shows the probability of TongFu Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TongFu Microelectronics price to stay between its current price of  29.15  and  36.92  at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.21 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TongFu Microelectronics Co has a beta of -0.74. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TongFu Microelectronics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TongFu Microelectronics Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TongFu Microelectronics Co has an alpha of 0.8273, implying that it can generate a 0.83 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   TongFu Microelectronics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TongFu Microelectronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TongFu Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.9230.5335.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.6324.2432.77
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.6932.3136.92
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.060.140.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as TongFu Microelectronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against TongFu Microelectronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, TongFu Microelectronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in TongFu Microelectronics.

TongFu Microelectronics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TongFu Microelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TongFu Microelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TongFu Microelectronics Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TongFu Microelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.83
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.74
σ
Overall volatility
5.59
Ir
Information ratio 0.15

TongFu Microelectronics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TongFu Microelectronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TongFu Microelectronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TongFu Microelectronics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 23.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: Tongfu Microelectronics Co.,Ltds Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 27 percent - Simply Wall St

TongFu Microelectronics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TongFu Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TongFu Microelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TongFu Microelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.5 B

TongFu Microelectronics Technical Analysis

TongFu Microelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TongFu Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TongFu Microelectronics Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing TongFu Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

TongFu Microelectronics Predictive Forecast Models

TongFu Microelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many TongFu Microelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TongFu Microelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about TongFu Microelectronics

Checking the ongoing alerts about TongFu Microelectronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TongFu Microelectronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
TongFu Microelectronics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
About 23.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Latest headline from news.google.com: Tongfu Microelectronics Co.,Ltds Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking After Shares Rocket 27 percent - Simply Wall St

Other Information on Investing in TongFu Stock

TongFu Microelectronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether TongFu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TongFu with respect to the benefits of owning TongFu Microelectronics security.