Weichai Heavy (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 10.41
| 000880 Stock | 18.52 1.68 9.98% |
Weichai |
Weichai Heavy Target Price Odds to finish below 10.41
The tendency of Weichai Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 10.41 or more in 90 days |
| 18.52 | 90 days | 10.41 | about 27.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Weichai Heavy to drop to 10.41 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.88 (This Weichai Heavy Machinery probability density function shows the probability of Weichai Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Weichai Heavy Machinery price to stay between 10.41 and its current price of 18.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.02 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Weichai Heavy has a beta of 0.14. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Weichai Heavy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Weichai Heavy Machinery will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Weichai Heavy Machinery has an alpha of 1.2399, implying that it can generate a 1.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Weichai Heavy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Weichai Heavy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Weichai Heavy Machinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Weichai Heavy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Weichai Heavy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Weichai Heavy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Weichai Heavy Machinery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Weichai Heavy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.26 |
Weichai Heavy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Weichai Heavy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Weichai Heavy Machinery can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Weichai Heavy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Weichai Energizes Global Markets through Strategic Partnerships and Innovation - PR Newswire Asia |
Weichai Heavy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Weichai Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Weichai Heavy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Weichai Heavy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 331.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Weichai Heavy Technical Analysis
Weichai Heavy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Weichai Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Weichai Heavy Machinery. In general, you should focus on analyzing Weichai Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Weichai Heavy Predictive Forecast Models
Weichai Heavy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Weichai Heavy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Weichai Heavy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Weichai Heavy Machinery
Checking the ongoing alerts about Weichai Heavy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Weichai Heavy Machinery help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Weichai Heavy appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| About 56.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Weichai Energizes Global Markets through Strategic Partnerships and Innovation - PR Newswire Asia |
Other Information on Investing in Weichai Stock
Weichai Heavy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Weichai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Weichai with respect to the benefits of owning Weichai Heavy security.