Jilin Chemical (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.03
| 000420 Stock | 3.80 0.05 1.33% |
Jilin |
Jilin Chemical Target Price Odds to finish below 0.03
The tendency of Jilin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 0.03 or more in 90 days |
| 3.80 | 90 days | 0.03 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Jilin Chemical to drop to 0.03 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Jilin Chemical Fibre probability density function shows the probability of Jilin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Jilin Chemical Fibre price to stay between 0.03 and its current price of 3.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.85 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Jilin Chemical Fibre has a beta of -0.55. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Jilin Chemical are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Jilin Chemical Fibre is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Jilin Chemical Fibre has an alpha of 0.5712, implying that it can generate a 0.57 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Jilin Chemical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Jilin Chemical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jilin Chemical Fibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Jilin Chemical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Jilin Chemical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Jilin Chemical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Jilin Chemical Fibre, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Jilin Chemical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.57 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.45 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Jilin Chemical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Jilin Chemical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Jilin Chemical Fibre can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Jilin Chemical Fibre had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 31.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Jilin Chemical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Jilin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Jilin Chemical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jilin Chemical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.5 B |
Jilin Chemical Technical Analysis
Jilin Chemical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Jilin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Jilin Chemical Fibre. In general, you should focus on analyzing Jilin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Jilin Chemical Predictive Forecast Models
Jilin Chemical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Jilin Chemical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Jilin Chemical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Jilin Chemical Fibre
Checking the ongoing alerts about Jilin Chemical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Jilin Chemical Fibre help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Jilin Chemical Fibre had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| About 31.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Jilin Stock
Jilin Chemical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jilin Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jilin with respect to the benefits of owning Jilin Chemical security.