Exxon Mobil Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Exxon Mobil - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Exxon Mobil prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Exxon Mobil price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Exxon Mobil.

Exxon Mobil Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Exxon Mobil on the next trading day is expected to be 104.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 3.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 79.22.

Exxon Mobil Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Exxon Mobil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Exxon Mobil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Exxon Mobil observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Exxon Mobil observations.

Predictive Modules for Exxon Mobil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Exxon Mobil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 103.46 105.00 106.54 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 97.96 99.50 115.50 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Exxon Mobil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Exxon Mobil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Exxon Mobil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Exxon Mobil.

Other Forecasting Options for Exxon Mobil

For every potential investor in Exxon, whether a beginner or expert, Exxon Mobil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Exxon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Exxon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Exxon Mobil's price trends.

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Exxon Mobil Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Exxon Mobil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Exxon Mobil's current price.

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