Dreyfus Alcentra Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Dreyfus Alcentra works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Dreyfus Alcentra Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dreyfus Alcentra Global on the next trading day is expected to be 9.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000014, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.10.

Dreyfus Alcentra Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dreyfus Alcentra mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dreyfus Alcentra mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Dreyfus Alcentra Global prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Dreyfus Alcentra Global trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Dreyfus Alcentra observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Dreyfus Alcentra

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dreyfus Alcentra Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 9.27 9.27 9.27 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 8.57 8.57 10.20 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 9.27 9.27 9.27 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Dreyfus Alcentra. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Dreyfus Alcentra's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Dreyfus Alcentra's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Dreyfus Alcentra Global.

Dreyfus Alcentra Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dreyfus Alcentra Market Strength Events

Dreyfus Alcentra Risk Indicators

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Consideration for investing in Dreyfus Mutual Fund