Vanguard Long-term Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Vanguard Long-term - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Vanguard Long-term prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Vanguard Long-term price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Vanguard Long Term. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vanguard Long-term observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vanguard Long Term Bond observations.

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Long-term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Long Term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 9.93 10.57 11.21 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 9.90 10.54 11.18 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Long-term. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Long-term's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Long-term's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vanguard Long Term.

Vanguard Long-term Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Vanguard Long-term Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund