Vodafone Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

V1OD34 Stock  BRL 26.13  0.15  0.57%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vodafone Group Public on the next trading day is expected to be 26.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.43. Vodafone Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vodafone Group stock prices and determine the direction of Vodafone Group Public's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vodafone Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Vodafone Group simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Vodafone Group Public are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Vodafone Group Public prices get older.

Vodafone Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vodafone Group Public on the next trading day is expected to be 26.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.43.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vodafone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vodafone Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vodafone Group Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vodafone Group Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vodafone Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vodafone Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.34 and 27.94, respectively. We have considered Vodafone Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
26.13
26.14
Expected Value
27.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vodafone Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vodafone Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.5858
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0234
MADMean absolute deviation0.3513
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0133
SAESum of the absolute errors21.4298
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Vodafone Group Public forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Vodafone Group observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Vodafone Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vodafone Group Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.3326.1327.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.4421.2428.74
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vodafone Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vodafone Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vodafone Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vodafone Group Public.

Other Forecasting Options for Vodafone Group

For every potential investor in Vodafone, whether a beginner or expert, Vodafone Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vodafone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vodafone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vodafone Group's price trends.

Vodafone Group Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vodafone Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vodafone Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vodafone Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vodafone Group Public Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vodafone Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vodafone Group's current price.

Vodafone Group Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vodafone Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vodafone Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vodafone Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vodafone Group Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vodafone Group Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vodafone Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vodafone Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vodafone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Vodafone Stock

Vodafone Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vodafone Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vodafone with respect to the benefits of owning Vodafone Group security.